Sweden and the Channel
The same shape, two other public ledgers.
Sweden’s National Council for Crime Prevention does not publish a Muslim census of offenders, and this page will not invent one. What Brå 2021:9 does publish is overrepresentation of the foreign-born in registered suspicions, and a second generation that stays elevated after the controls above. By region of birth the foreign-born are not one bloc: shares of suspicions run from about 3 percent to about 19 percent (page 53). Brå 2025:7 then splits the migrant stream the useful way. People from high-income countries, and people admitted to work or study, are at or under the Swedish-born rate. People from low-income and conflict-origin countries are higher.
On the offenses that dominate the politics, Sverigefakta’s reading of Brå 2021:9 figure 13b — age and sex adjusted, not the fully controlled model — puts foreign-born overrepresentation at about 3.6 times for lethal violence, 2.9 times for rape, and 3.5 times for robbery. The overall gap shrinks when income, education, and municipality are added. The offense multiples above are the age-and-sex figures. Use them at that strength and no further.
Britain’s small boats are a headcount, not a crime table. The House of Commons Library, for the year ending June 2026, records about 33,000 arrivals, about 72 percent of them adult men, accounting for about 88 percent of detected unauthorised arrivals. About 205,000 people have arrived this way since 2018. The peak was about 46,000 in 2022. 2025 was about 41,000. Nationalities rotate: Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Eritrea, Sudan, Iraq, Albania. Five of those seven are Muslim-majority states. Albania is not. Eritrea is religiously mixed. Do not write “all of them.”
One English city already ran the experiment of refusing to describe a pattern. The Alexis Jay inquiry, published in 2014, found at least 1,400 children sexually exploited in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013. Officials looked away in part because they were afraid of being accused of racism. That is not a German suspect table. It is a warning about what a taboo costs.